US Presidential election 2012 – early prediction

Update: Click here for my analysis of the 2012 US election results


Jan 2012: Here’s my early prediction of the outcome of this year’s US Presidential election. I think Democratic candidate Barack Obama will narrowly win a second term as President with 295 electoral college votes, just ahead of his Republican rival on 243.

I expect the Republicans will eventually nominate Mitt Romney to be their candidate. However if the dramatic result of the GOP caucuses in Iowa is anything to go by, it certainly promises to be a fascinating contest.


UPDATE – 26 October 2012

Based on everything I’ve seen and read over the last 10 months of this extraordinary election campaign I have 2 revisions to make to my forecast from January. I think INDIANA will vote for Romney instead of Obama (11 electoral college votes). However I also think that IOWA will vote for Obama instead of Romney (6 electoral college votes). Overall I predict that President Obama will be re-elected with the following result:

Democrat Barack Obama: 290 electoral college votes

Republican Mitt Romney: 248 electoral college votes

3 thoughts on “US Presidential election 2012 – early prediction

  1. I think the USA electorate should uphold Barack Obama for the second presidential term, considering that he came in when the adverse global economic circumstances were already beyond his immediate control and which were unlikely to improve in the short term no matter what desirable changes he made. It is therefore unlikely that a new president would make any worthwhile economic impact at this time. So, why not let President Obama continue and allow him to build on the experience he has gained?

    • Well, the Republicans don’t want Pres Obama, mostly because he’s black and doesn’t agree with them. But, to the President’s credit, as far as I am aware, he has never played that trump card. I believe he could do a good job; but it’s difficult to work with people who refuse to be cooperative. Having said that, politics is the only job in the world where one can sit back, cross his arms and say, “to H__l with you! I will not work with you. The rest of us would be in the bread line if we did that.

  2. Pingback: Signed, Sealed, Delivered: Four More Years « Cllr Sundip Meghani

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